CHART UPDATE

This week we look at IYM, EUR/USD, gold, and the US dollar.

To view the charts, click the link below:

http://www.median-line-study.com/charts.html

Keep drawing the lines!

Greg Fisher

www.median-line-study.com

CHART UPDATE

This week we look at IYM, EUR/USD, corn, and the US dollar.

To view the charts, click the link below:

http://www.median-line-study.com/charts.html

Keep drawing the lines!

Greg Fisher

www.median-line-study.com

By Elliott Wave International

Some people like to get outside on the weekends, maybe playing tennis or working in the yard. Some people like to visit their friends or cook a big meal or go out to see a movie. And some people who are passionate about their work — such as Elliott Wave International’s futures analyst Jeffrey Kennedy — like to stare at hundreds of price charts on their computer screen to find patterns that point to trade setups. We used to worry for his health but not anymore, because he’s been doing it for years and he comes up with some neat stuff. A case in point is his discovery of a two-bar pattern that he named the Popgun. Find out more in this excerpt from the Club EWI eBook, How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups.

The Popgun
I’m no doubt dating myself, but when I was a kid, I had a popgun — the old-fashioned kind with a cork and string (no fake Star Wars light saber for me). You pulled the trigger, and the cork popped out of the barrel attached to a string. If you were like me, you immediately attached a longer string to improve the popgun’s reach. Why the reminiscing? Because “Popgun” is the name of a bar pattern I would like to share with you this month. And it’s the path of the cork (out and back) that made me think of the name for this pattern.

The Popgun is a two-bar pattern composed of an outside bar preceded by an inside bar. (Quick refresher course: An outside bar occurs when the range of a bar encompasses the previous bar and an inside bar is a price bar whose range is encompassed by the previous bar.) In Chart 1 (Coffee), I have circled two Popguns.

So what’s so special about the Popgun? It introduces swift, tradable moves in price. More importantly, once the moves end, they are significantly retraced, just like the popgun cork going out and back. As you can see in Chart 2 [not shown], prices advance sharply following the Popgun, and then the move is significantly retraced. In Chart 3 [not shown], we see the same thing again but to the downside: prices fall dramatically after the Popgun, and then a sizable correction develops.

How can we incorporate this bar pattern into our Elliott wave analysis? The best way is to understand where Popguns show up in the wave patterns. I have noticed that Popguns tend to occur prior to impulse waves — waves one, three and five. But, remember, waves A and C of corrective wave patterns are also technically impulse waves. So Popguns can occur prior to those moves as well.

As with all my work, I rely on a pattern only if it applies across all time frames and markets. To illustrate, I have included two charts of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) that show this pattern works equally well on 60-minute and weekly charts. Notice that the Popgun on the 60-minute chart [not shown] preceded a small third wave advance. Now look at the weekly chart [not shown] to see what three Popguns introduced (from left to right), wave C of a flat correction, wave 5 of (3) and wave C of (4).

Find out How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups In this comprehensive 15-page eBook, Jeffrey provides each pattern with a definition, illustrations of its form, lessons on its application and how to incorporate it into Elliott wave analysis, historical examples of its occurrence in major commodity markets, and ultimately — compelling proof of how it identified swift and sizable moves. Download the free, 15-page eBook today >>

By Elliott Wave International

In this video clip, taken from Robert Prechter’s interview with The Mind of Money, Prechter and host Douglass Lodmell discuss “real” money vs the FIAT money system, and what is backing your dollars under our current system. Enjoy this 4-minute clip and then watch Prechter’s full 45-minute interview here >>

A major USDA report last Thursday took the markets a bit by surprise and sent corn down the daily trading limit.  As you can see on the corn chart, the modified Schiff Median Line set had suggested price was headed lower long before the report.

CHART UPDATE

This week we look at FXI, EUR/USD, corn, and the US dollar.

To view the charts, click the link below:

http://www.median-line-study.com/charts.html

Keep drawing the lines!

Greg Fisher

www.median-line-study.com

By Elliott Wave International

In 1999, 11 European countries surrendered their currencies for the euro and a shared monetary authority. Barely a decade later, the once-celebrated EU is in the midst of a credit crisis and its currency is facing collapse.

Elliott Wave International’s analysts have been anticipating and tracking the credit contagion across the European nations for the past two years. EWI subscribers were first alerted to the still-developing European debt crisis back in December 2009.

The following is excerpted from a December 2010 report from The European Debt Crisis, a new report from EWI. This free report provides important analysis from February 2010 through today that helps you understand what the European economic crisis can mean for your investments. Plus, you’ll get a unique perspective on what’s ahead. Find out how to access this free report below.

The Credit Crisis Spreads — December 2010 The credit crisis is escalating as expected. Back in January 2010, when ratings agency Moody’s bestowed “investment grade” status on a widely followed index of sovereign bonds, The European Financial Forecast argued that a renewed Primary-degree decline would in fact aim the credit crisis directly at this critical new realm. Our case for the looming sovereign debt debacle rested primarily on two pieces of evidence: (1) Primary wave 3 (circled) had begun in Europe’s peripheral markets, and (2) premiums for credit-default swaps on European sovereigns (think of an insurance policy against a national default) were already signaling the next phase of the crisis by surpassing their 2008-09 price extremes. The February 2010 issue of EFF published a chart showing rising Greek, Spanish and Italian swaps and offered this description of how Europe’s credit crunch would escalate: “The theme during Primary wave 1 (circled) was default at the individual, corporate and quasi-government level. The theme for Primary wave 3 (circled) will be default at the sovereign level.”

Today, the credit crunch is clearly angling itself away from mere corporations and toward whole countries. On November 15, Bloomberg announced the escalation with this headline:

Companies Safer Than Sovereigns as Crisis Cracks ‘Old Order’ — Bloomberg, November 15, 2010

London credit strategist Greg Venizelos tells Bloomberg that the “old order” was the one where investors believed large sovereign nations to be better credit risks than corporate borrowers. However, debt is being repriced, he says, and today “corporates are now better credit quality than sovereigns in the periphery.” Indeed, swaps on Italian government bonds are more expensive than 75% of the Italian companies contained in the iTraxx Europe Index of European corporations. In Spain, traders deem Spanish sovereign debt to be riskier than all six Spanish companies in the index. Even in the supposedly safe core European country of France, 5-year swaps tied to French government bonds climbed to an all-time high of 105 basis points in November. At that level, more than half of the 25 French companies in the iTraxx index trade tighter than the French sovereign, according to Bloomberg.

The chart above shows another way to view the escalation of the credit crisis. By plotting the difference, or “spread,” between swaps on European corporations versus those on European sovereigns, the rising line shows derivative traders’ increasing fear over sovereign default relative to corporate borrowers. So, yes, the old order of safer sovereigns is over. But notice, too, that the debt crisis began escalating when the continent’s peripheral markets started topping way back in October 2009. The billion-euro question is, “Who is next?” The media is clearly focusing on Portugal, as 5-year credit default swaps tied to Portuguese bonds are setting all-time records. But charts show that so too are swaps tied to Spanish and Italian bonds. Five-year swaps on Belgian debt also reached an all-time high last month. Either one of these countries could be next. Maybe they’ll all go down together, but in the larger scheme of things, it doesn’t matter. The most important thing to observe is that even core European countries like France and Germany exhibit spiking default insurance premiums, too. These countries are the largest contributors to the �440 billion Facility, the same one that backstops the rest of Europe.

The June 2010 European Financial Forecast said unequivocally that before the storm is over, “at least one, but more likely several, G8 nations will capsize.” We stand by our forecast.

The European Debt Crisis is affecting investments across the globe. Gain a valuable perspective on the European debt crisis and get ahead of what is yet to come in this FREE resource from Elliott Wave International.Read Your Free Report Now: The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments.

At the beginning of October, I posted a bonus video for course members discussing one commodity that had a chance of going to all times highs – perhaps the only commodity that had that potential through the rest of the year. What was that commodity? Cattle. Last July I sent my dad – who is a rancher – a feeder cattle chart. The lines were telling me that price had a good chance of reaching $1.55 by the end of the year. Price didn’t quite get there, but as the following Bloomberg article describes, feeder cattle hit an all time high of $1.508 on December 28th:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/cattle-beat-gold-as-safest-commodity-return-in-11-as-price-swings-widened.html

CHART UPDATE

This week we look at IWM, EUR/USD, oil, and the US dollar.

To view the charts, click the link below:

http://www.median-line-study.com/charts.html

Keep drawing the lines!

Greg Fisher

www.median-line-study.com

Special for Andrews’ Median Line course – from now through October 31st, a special discount – $100 off the regular price!

http://www.medianlinestudy.com/andrewscourse

CHART UPDATE

This week we look at FXI, EUR/USD, copper, and the US dollar.

To view the charts, click the link below:

http://www.median-line-study.com/charts.html

Keep drawing the lines!

Greg Fisher

www.median-line-study.com

http://www.medianlinestudy.com/andrewscourse

CHART UPDATE
This week we look at FXI, GBP/USD, e-mini S&P, and the US dollar.
To view the charts, click the link below:

http://www.median-line-study.com/charts.html

Keep drawing the lines!
Greg Fisher
www.median-line-study.com