I just updated my currencies and futures charts illustrating Median Line techniques for 08/23/09. I am finding out that I simply do not have the time to post stocks/ETF charts, so I have removed them from my site. Maybe in the future I will find some time to bring them back. Now to the charts!
I think the stock indices surprised many when it broke up through the .382 retracement from the October 2007 highs, but not to anyone following the Median Line charts! There may be some life left in the stock indices. I truly believe stocks are in a bear market rally that will end soon – just not quite yet. I am watching to see if price is drawn to the area of confluence the end of August/first part of September at the .500 retracements on the Dow and S&P.
Oil broke to new yearly highs this last week as well. Gold also had an up day on Friday and looks to move up further short term. Is it sustainable? Depends on the US dollar. Many of the currencies are at important lines that will dictate near term market direction. Maybe a little weakness in the US dollar short term before it strengthens? It should be an interesting week.
Futures: http://www.medianlinestudy.com/futures.html
Currencies: http://www.medianlinestudy.com/currencies.html
Keep drawing the lines!
Greg Fisher
Greg,
First, I would like to thank you for providing a fine introduction to Median-line analysis on your website.
Although I only have just started to apply these concepts, I would like to suggest an alternate ML set point in your current Gold chart at the lower low of Aug.12 rather than the higher low of Aug.10 that you have used. Using this lower set point, you will observe that the price spike high of Friday, Aug. 21 hits and reverses exactly on the ML, and prices since have declined. The earlier set point you used, unfortunately, led to the mistaken conclusion that the ML was run through and that prices would advance further, which obviously, did not occur.
Comment by xavier — August 24, 2009 @ 7:47 pm
Xavier,
Very good observation. I chose the previous pivot because it produced a test of the lower MLH. Which brings out a very good point – the choice of pivots is a critical part of applying the Median Line method. If I had chosen the lowest low as I normally I do, I would have been better off. Sometimes the obvious escapes us!
Greg
Comment by admin — August 24, 2009 @ 8:17 pm